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February 7, 2014

Led by a resurgence in single-family production, housing will continue its climb toward higher ground in 2014, but builders are still confronting several challenges that could hinder the pace of the ongoing recovery, according to economists speaking at the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) International Builders' Show (IBS) in Las Vegas.

February 7, 2014

Las Vegas -- At last year’s International Builders’ Show, industry economists from the builders’ biggest trade group looked into their crystal balls and made forecasts for housing starts.

How did they do? Short answer: Not bad.

A little more than a year ago, HCN reported the housing start forecast from National Association of Home Builders chief economist David Crowe. Here’s how it stacked up with time and reality:

Total housing starts

January 23, 2014

Total existing-home sales edged up by 1.0% in December to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.87 million, making the full-year count for 2013 the highest since 2006, according to the National Association of Realtors.

November 20, 2013

The National Lumber and Building Materials Dealers Association (NLBMDA) will be hosting its first-ever Dealer Networking Breakfast & Housing Forecast at the 2014 International Builders Show, taking place Feb. 5 in Las Vegas.

Attendees will have an opportunity to network as well as get up to speed with the latest housing forecast, delivered by National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) chief economist David Crowe.

September 19, 2013

Existing-home sales were at their highest in six and a half years in August, rising 1.7% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.48 million. Specifically, single-family home sales were up 1.7% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.84 million.

Despite the record numbers, National Association of Realtors chief economist Lawrence Yun cautioned that they may represent a temporary peak.

September 19, 2013

While housing starts for August again failed to rise above the 900,000 pace, the National Association of Home Builders celebrated the gain in single-family starts.

August 29, 2013

The Pending Home Sales Index for July declined 1.3% to 109.5 as higher mortgage rates dampened enthusiasm for home buyers, according to the National Association of Realtors (NAR).

The NAR's Chief Economist Lawrence Yun didn't seem concerned by what he called a "modest decline in sales." 

The Pending Home Sales Index is a forward-looking indicator based on contract signings. The index has remained above year-ago levels for 27 consecutive months.

August 21, 2013

Total existing-home sales fared well in July, experiencing a 6.5% increase to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.39 million, marking the 25th consecutive month that sales have remained above year-ago levels.

The National Association of Realtors reported that July's figures are up from June's downwardly revised total of 5.06 million and are 17.2% higher than July 2012's 4.60 million.

Total housing inventory rose 5.6% to 2.28 million existing homes available for sale, marking a 5.1 month supply that was consistent with June's figures.

August 14, 2013

Associated Builders and Contractors (ABC) reported a 3.9% increase in its Construction Backlog Indicator (CBI) last quarter, representing 8.2 months of backlogged work, up from 7.9 months in the first quarter of 2013.

The CBI is a metric that details the amount of commercial and industrial construction work that is currently under contract and not yet completed.

June 18, 2013

For the first time since April 2006, builder confidence surged past 50 on the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index released Tuesday. This benchmark indicates that builder sentiment is mostly positive regarding market conditions.

The eight-point jump to 52 in June also marked the biggest one-month gain since August and September 2002.

Any reading over 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as good than poor.

May 6, 2013

Pending home sales increased in March and remain above year-ago levels, according to the National Association of Realtors.

April 8, 2013

While housing starts and building permits continue to trend higher, builder confidence, which often dovetails nicely with housing construction figures, has dipped over the last few months.

So what gives?

According to the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB), which, in conjunction with Wells Fargo, publishes the builder confidence index, waning confidence is not necessarily due to diminishing demand for new homes.

February 22, 2013

Up 0.4% from a downwardly revised December, existing-home sales shows strong buyer demand, according to the NAR.

February 21, 2013

An intelligent analysis of 2013 forecasts for the hardware and building material industries must begin with the recognition of a term that has entered the lexicon of economic forecasting and business predicting.

The term is "head fake."

January 28, 2013

December takes a step back, but NAR data show a long-running upward trend on a year-over-year basis.

January 23, 2013

Las Vegas -- The National Association of Home Builders sees the residential construction industry gaining momentum in a larger economy that includes a few wild cards.

January 23, 2013

Total existing-home sales declined 1.0% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.94 million in December from a downwardly revised 4.99 million in November, according to the National Association of Realtors.

November 8, 2012

Existing single-family home sales rose in 120 out of 149 metropolitan statistical areas based on closings in the third quarter of 2012 compared with the same quarter in 2011, according to the national Association of Realtors (NAR), while 29 areas had price declines. In the second quarter of 2012, 110 areas showed increases from a year earlier.

October 30, 2012

The Pending Home Sales Index, a forward-looking indicator based on contract signings, edged up 0.3% to 99.5 in September from 99.2 in August and is 14.5% above September 2011 when it was 86.9. The data reflect contracts but not closings. 

October 19, 2012

September existing-home sales declined modestly, according to the National Association of Realtors. Inventory continued to tighten and the national median home price recorded its seventh back-to-back monthly increase from a year earlier.  

Total existing-home sales fell 1.7% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.75 million in September from an upwardly revised 4.83 million in August, but are 11.0% above the 4.28 million-unit pace in September 2011.

October 15, 2012

In a survey by the National Association of Realtors (NAR) in September, 65% of realtors reported they had no contract problems relating to home appraisals over the past three months; 11% said a contract was canceled because an appraised value came in below the price negotiated between the buyer and seller; 9% reported a contract was delayed; and 15% said a contract was renegotiated to a lower sales price as a result of a low valuation.

August 2, 2012

A new forecast from the Portland Cement Association (PCA) nearly doubles the expected increase in cement consumption for the year, attributing the boost to both changes in construction activity and the projected amount of cement used in future projects.

July 19, 2012

Numbers released today by the National Association of Realtors (NAR) showed continued gains in existing home prices but a slower market for sales. Completed transactions that include single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops declined 5.4% percent in June compared to May. In year-over-year figures, June 2012 was 4.5% higher than June 2011.

July 17, 2012

Builder confidence in the market for newly built, single-family homes rose six points for July on the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI). This is the largest one-month gain recorded by the index in nearly a decade, and brings the HMI to its highest point -- 35 -- since March 2007.

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