(Nov. 9) Atlanta -- There are plenty of signs that industrial supply and specialty tool distributors are operating in conditions that are a long way from normal.

One example: When president Hal Look gives his state of the industry address Monday morning, he'll be doing so as VP at ProBuild Specialty Building Products, which came into being a mere two months ago.

Following him on the agenda to deliver the associate member state of the industry address is Les Ireland, VP at Black & Decker, which only a week ago announced a merger with the Stanley Works.

These are signs of the changing times that STAFDA members are confronting at their 33rd annual convention and trade show here at the Georgia World Congress Center in downtown Atlanta.

In his official letter, president Look pointed to "some light beginning to shine at the end of the tunnel."

That sentiment was echoed in a thorough and at times sobering three-hour economic forecast by economist Alan Beaulieu, president of the Institute for Trend Research. (Beaulieu is the same economist who presented a forecast to the Lumber Association of California and Nevada (LACN) in October.)

A packed conference room greeted his presentation, titled "The Future is Your Decision." He started with the bad news: don’t expect a dramatic "V-shaped" recovery. "I encourage you to think about a broad U-shaped, long, unpleasant, slightly less bad," he said. "But that's what we have for 2010."

Beaulieu forecast that unemployment will remain high and won't return to the 7% level until 2012. And get ready for inflation, too -- "Congress is the only group that doesn't know inflation is coming to the U.S.," he said.

The ITR forecast called for a barrel of oil, now in the $80 range, to jump to about $120 in 2011. And in 2010 housing starts are not going to reach 750,000, a figure which he described as "wildly optimistic."

Beaulieu said non-residential construction normally lags about a year behind an overall economic recovery. Office building construction trends are clearly negative with more declines to come, he added.

But there is good news: The United States has a winning fertility rate of 2.1%. That natural growth combined with the consumers' recent ability suggest future sales

"The world is going to get better," he said. "Demographics are on your side, reduced debt is on your side. You just need to live through the next few quarters, and you're going to enjoy life again."

Macroeconomics was just part of the Sunday education. In a nearby conference room, the topic turned to visual merchandising.

Greg Gorman, the author of a new STAFDA manual called "Showroom Design and Merchandising," offered several strategies to delegates.

Wooden fixtures, he said, are a good material to offset the natural harshness of the merchandise in an industry supply house. He urged attendees to refrain from using tape to hang a sign -- "It's not professional," he said. And to those who aren't comfortable with visual merchandising, he suggested: "Start slow and grow big."